ENER, Was It A Dream Or a Nightmare?

Wow, when I first dabbled in Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) the stock was channeling between $24 and $33. I was out of the stock when it exploded on a short squeeze back in early May. I did not chase it but watched with amazement as it touched $80 a share.

Now we see the stock has backed down to the low 30's again. I'm not in Solar at the moment. I am into GLD and some smaller stocks like KITD.ob and some of the second tier search marketing stocks. MIVA is one, trading below cash and ready to be eaten by someone like AOL or even IAC.

I bought some YHOO at $12.10 and hold VCLK right at their cash value. When this mess is all said and done those trading at or under their enterprise value will rise the fastest.

One man's opinion anyway!

Pickens Plan

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AMSC Explodes On China Order

I pointed to AMSC the other day when it was sitting near $36. Yesterday the stock gained nearly 25% intraday settling at $42.50.

The stock responded to a $450. mil. order from Sinovel Wind Corp. Perfect setting to fry shorts who represent 26% of the float.

This morning we get this;
Am Superconductor AMSC RBC Capital Mkts Underperform
Am Superconductor AMSC Jefferies & Co Hold

As well call options activity has been described as follows;
DAILY OPTION$ NEWS
American Superconductor
Symbol:AMSC
Price:43.11
(the July 50 calls (QAYGJ) traded 1393 contracts vs. 0 previous open interest)

Perfect tug of war as option traders are signalling they see it higher while RBC and Jefferies attempts to protect their hedged friends.
More orders squash the shorts.

I have a very small position at the moment. I'm expecting some major swings north and south here.

UPDATE: Shorts getting more help---Strong wording here;

"Citron Research issues another negative piece on American Superconductor Corporation (Nasdaq: AMSC), calling the recent announcement of a $450 million contract to provide core electrical components for Sinovel's wind turbines "lunacy."Citron compares the order to the recent announcement by T. Boone Pickens to build a farm for 4,000 megawatts (4 Gw) that is planned in 4 phases for ultimate completion in 2014. Citron said, "Now we are supposed to believe that American Superconductor just received an order for 10 Gw to be delivered by 2011. That is 2 times the size of the Pickens project in a time span that is half the time. Yet, nowhere in any language do we see an order awarded to Sinovel that would support anything close to this."


"MrJoeMaster" counterpunches!
Read Barron's opinion on American Superconductor here!

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Brightcove IPO Soon? Goldman Sachs As The Lead

This has nothing to do with alternative energy but lots to do with a stock I own and follow closely, KIT Digital (KITD.ob).



Competitor and arguably industry leader Brightcove, (funded to $89m says Techcrunch) is rumored to be working with Goldman Sachs as IPO lead.

KIT digital (KITD.ob) CEO Kaleil Tuzman echos the rumor in a newsletter. Chatter from the bowels of Yahoo! Finance message boards offers this.

Poster Digimediastar offered yesterday this:

"Word on the street is that Brightcove is going public with Goldman as the lead. I think this harbors well for KITD in terms of category multiple, because I bet Brightcove gets a nosebleed valuation.
Also, consolidation in this industry is getting real...NRWS/ONSM...JTV/Neulion... "

KIT Digital CEO Kaleil Tuzman today offered in a letter to shareholders and colleagues the following as part of his inspiring message;

"With the IP-enabled video industry consolidating rapidly (in the last 3 months alone, Yahoo! has acquired Maven, OnStream Media announced the acquisition of Narrowstep, and JumpTV has merged with Neulion), we have been growing rapidly, and feel we are well-positioned as the only truly globally-focused player (our revenues are over 85% outside of North America) with both mobile and online distribution capability.
The highest profile player in our industry, Brightcove, is rumored to be working on a large IPO with Goldman Sachs, which we believe will lead to increased, positive focus on our industry. We think KIT digital will compare positively in terms of relative valuation, quality of revenues, revenue mix, and technical capabilities. At KIT digital's current $23 million market capitalization (fully diluted for the recent financing shares currently being registered with the SEC) we think we are deeply undervalued, from both fundamental and relative perspectives--and are excited about the ride ahead."

This would be a positive for KIT Digital as suggested by the CEO. It would also be a positive for the investors who are in deep, some say as deep as $80 million.

Keep your eyes on news from Brightcove and any washover towards KITD.

*There is nothing on Google web or blog search or any other major search engine talking about this at the moment. Take it for what it's worth.

Disclaimer, I own shares of KITD.ob. All disclaimers hold here. Please do your own research.

Forecasting Gail Winds With AMSC, CPTC

No real stock updates lately though I have been active in the market. Stocks I am looking at include American Superconductor Corporation (AMSC) and Clayton Williams Energy Inc.(CWEI). I bought CWEI at $94.40 and sold at $99.15 but missed the run on Friday 6/6 to $106.
Who knew oil would run up $10 in one day.
AMSC is a wind play like Composite Tech Corp (CPTC).

Compare the two for yourself. AMSC has a decent following on Yahoo! Finance with a few very knowledgeable posters.

Stocks I am either actively trading or holding include KITD.ob, GOFH.ob, GA, NCTY, LOOK, MIVA, Q's, WWAT.ob.

CNBC Portfolio Challenge Update

Update 6/2: Moved up to 1,544th place week ended May 30.
Portfolio starting the week of June 2 getting hammered by the down market.

I started strong using only four stocks, all solar plays. My placing has steadily dropped from a high of 235th place in week two to 4,925th place currently. I understand there are more than 500,000 portfolio's in play so a top 1% ranking isn't that bad.

The "trading" aspect of this competition is clunky. You place a trade and it is readjusted after market close, I think......

Honestly I have not read the fine print.

$1.140M
Total Portfolio Value*
Top 0.7%
Game Rank*
4925th
Game Rank Position*
3,606 (0.3%)

My current stocks and allocation are as follows;

Current Holdings as of 5/24/08 at 1:09pm EST

Shares Held
% of Portfolioas of 5/23/08 at 4pm EST
MTZ
MasTec Inc
25%
WFR
MEMC Electronic Materials...
9%
WGOV
Woodward Governor Co
12%
SPWR
SunPower Corp
18%
SOLF
Solarfun Power Holdings...
9%
GA
Giant Interactive Group Inc
24%

Portfolio Value*
$1.140M

Wind Power Bedtime Reading

The Environment section of The Guardian offers a comprehensive view of the alternative energy needs of the UK.

Today in their Wind Power Blog I found some interesting stats regarding renewable energy targets;

"Britain must step up its construction of offshore wind farms if it is to meet its target of producing 15% of energy needs from renewable sources, the chief executive of a leading utility said yesterday.
At the present rate, Britain is on course to produce between 5% and 7% of its energy from renewables, Scottish and Southern Energy's Ian Marchant said.
"The solution is to explore offshore wind. To meet the target we are going to need 25 gigawatts of offshore wind power."
Industry experts calculate that, to meet the 15% target, Britain would need to generate around 35% to 40% of its electricity from renewables, with much of that coming from wind farms.
Last week, SSE signed a lease with the Crown Estate to build a £1.3bn wind farm at Greater Gabbard, 26 kilometres off the Suffolk coast, which will be the country's largest. It will have generating capacity of 504 megawatts - half the output of an average coal-fired station. Due to be operational by 2011, it will produce enough electricity to power 415,000 homes .
Marchant said the UK needed to build four wind farms a year the size of Greater Gabbard to meet the renewables target..... more "

International demand combined with US domestic needs will impact suppliers large and small. Much of my time studying stocks will be dedicated to searching out the best stock plays in the wind power sector.
So move over solar, make room for your favorite first cousin.